Genomic Surveillance of COVID-19 Variants With Language Models and Machine Learning.

The global efforts to control COVID-19 are threatened by the rapid emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants that may display undesirable characteristics such as immune escape, increased transmissibility or pathogenicity. Early prediction for emergence of new strains with these features is critical for pandemic preparedness. We present Strainflow, a supervised and causally predictive model using unsupervised latent space features of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences. Strainflow was trained and validated on 0.9 million sequences for the period December, 2019 to June, 2021 and the frozen model was prospectively validated from July, 2021 to December, 2021. Strainflow captured the rise in cases 2 months ahead of the Delta and Omicron surges in most countries including the prediction of a surge in India as early as beginning of November, 2021. Entropy analysis of Strainflow unsupervised embeddings clearly reveals the explore-exploit cycles in genomic feature-space, thus adding interpretability to the deep learning based model. We also conducted codon-level analysis of our model for interpretability and biological validity of our unsupervised features. Strainflow application is openly available as an interactive web-application for prospective genomic surveillance of COVID-19 across the globe.

High failure rate of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 immunization against asymptomatic infection in healthcare workers during a Delta variant surge.

Immunization is expected to confer protection against infection and severe disease for vaccines while reducing risks to unimmunized populations by inhibiting transmission. Here, based on serial serological studies of an observational cohort of healthcare workers, we show that during a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 Delta-variant outbreak in Delhi, 25.3% (95% Confidence Interval 16.9-35.2) of previously uninfected, ChAdOx1-nCoV19 double vaccinated, healthcare workers were infected within less than two months, based on serology. Induction of anti-spike response was similar between groups with breakthrough infection (541 U/ml, Inter Quartile Range 374) and without (342 U/ml, Inter Quartile Range 497), as was the induction of neutralization activity to wildtype. This was not vaccine failure since vaccine effectiveness estimate based on infection rates in an unvaccinated cohort were about 70% and most infections were asymptomatic. We find that while ChAdOx1-nCoV19 vaccination remains effective in preventing severe infections, it is unlikely to be completely able to block transmission and provide herd immunity.

Insights from a Pan India Sero-Epidemiological survey (Phenome-India Cohort) for SARS-CoV2.

To understand the spread of SARS-CoV2, in August and September 2020, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (India) conducted a serosurvey across its constituent laboratories and centers across India. Of 10,427 volunteers, 1058 (10.14%) tested positive for SARS-CoV2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-NC) antibodies, 95% of which had surrogate neutralization activity. Three-fourth of these recalled no symptoms. Repeat serology tests at 3 (n = 607) and 6 (n = 175) months showed stable anti-NC antibodies but declining neutralization activity. Local seropositivity was higher in densely populated cities and was inversely correlated with a 30-day change in regional test positivity rates (TPRs). Regional seropositivity above 10% was associated with declining TPR. Personal factors associated with higher odds of seropositivity were high-exposure work (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval, p value: 2.23, 1.92-2.59, <0.0001), use of public transport (1.79, 1.43-2.24, <0.0001), not smoking (1.52, 1.16-1.99, 0.0257), non-vegetarian diet (1.67, 1.41-1.99, <0.0001), and B blood group (1.36, 1.15-1.61, 0.001).